BUENOS AIRES, Dec. 23 — Adolfo Rodríguez Saá, a moderate governor
from a tiny rural province, became the unlikely caretaker president of
Argentina today after several days of civil disturbances. He immediately
declared a default on the country's $132 billion debt, promising to use
the money saved to create jobs and fortify social programs.
The default is the largest in history, but is not considered an
imminent threat to other countries, developed or developing. That is
because the crisis has been slow to unfold, and many creditors had
opportunities to limit their risk.
That is in contrast to the experience of Russia in 1988, when it
defaulted on part of its $200 billion in foreign debt, causing economic
harm in many developing countries. But the default here does stand to
cause damage locally, for Argentine banks and pension funds, and
Argentines of every class are already suffering badly in the economic
crisis.
Mr. Rodríguez Saá will serve for only three months, until an
unusual national election is held on March 3 and a new president is
inaugurated.
Neither elected nor experienced on the national stage, Mr. Rodríguez
Saá will be responsible for shepherding the country through a crisis,
with its economy in free fall and the electorate furious over years of
government corruption. The banking system is on the point of collapse,
one in five workers are unemployed, and the system of public health care
and retirement benefits is in trouble.
Immediately, the new president must try to stabilize the country
after a week of food riots, looting and political demonstrations left at
least 29 dead and forced Fernando de la Rúa to resign as president on
Thursday.
"We must take the bull by the horns," Mr. Rodríguez Saá,
54, told a joint session of Congress today after they ratified him as
the interim president. In his speech, he announced the suspension of
debt payments, without indicating when or how the government would
resume the payments.
The lawmakers gave him a standing ovation, chanting, "Argentina!
Argentina! Argentina!" Dressed in a white shirt, blue suit and
matching tie, Mr. Rodríguez Saá pursed his lips, in a gesture of
defiant resolution, and nodded his head in solemn acknowledgment of the
cheers.
He will have to administer the country in the midst of what is
expected to be a bitter political campaign for president pitting three
or four powerful governors of his own Justicialist, or Peronist, Party.
The two heavy favorites in the March election are Carlos Ruckauf,
governor of Buenos Aires Province, who served as vice president under
former President Carlos Saúl Menem in the late 1990's; and José Manuel
de la Sota, governor of Córdoba Province, a proponent of supply-side
economics whose tax cuts have made him a favorite of big business.
Hundreds of protesters banged pots and pans outside the Congress
early this morning as legislators debated the selection of the new
president, as if to warn the politicians of more trouble to come if real
changes were not made.
Mr. Rodríguez Saá took a populist tone in his address to Congress.
"I believe in an Argentina without unemployment, without
misery," he said in a speech that appeared to have been quickly
drafted and had little rhetorical flourish.
He wrapped himself in the legacies of Gen. Juan Domingo Perón, the
dictator who founded the Justicialist Party in the 1940's as a vehicle
for big labor, and the Mothers of the Plaza de Mayo, a group that still
demonstrates demanding information about the tens of thousands of people
who disappeared during military rule from 1976 to 1983.
But Mr. Rodríguez Saá stopped well short of a complete break with
previous government policy. Bank controls instituted three weeks ago by
Mr. de la Rúa, which limit cash withdrawals from bank accounts to
$1,000 a month, are remaining in effect even though they were an
important cause of the rioting.
Mr. Rodríguez Saá also said he had no intention of ending the
practice of pegging the peso's value to the dollar, a decade-old program
known as convertibility that has brought the country stable prices but
made its products costly on world markets as the dollar gained strength.
"A devaluation would mean decreasing salaries and consumer
buying power and would only worsen our problems," he said. But
economists both here and on Wall Street say a painful, and perhaps
chaotic fall in the value of the peso is probably unavoidable within
weeks.
The new president may be able to delay a devaluation as long as
capital controls and a bank holiday remain in effect. But once banks
reopen, there could be a big withdrawals of dollars if the capital
controls ease, and economists say it would then be hard for the
government to keep the currency peg.
Instead of devaluing, Mr. Rodríguez Saá said he would expand a
policy initiated by Mr. de la Rúa of printing scrip in the form of low-
interest bonds to pay government workers.
Scrip is already in use in Argentina, and is of questionable value,
so people spend it quickly, and businesses are likely to accept it as
long as they can pay bills and taxes with the money. Usually scrip loses
value over time in what some economists call a "backdoor
devaluation."
By ceasing payment on the debt, Mr. Rodríguez Saá can save the
government as much as $10 billion or more next year, although Argentina
is likely to be shut out of international financial markets for years to
come.
Of the $132 billion owed by the government, about $45 billion is in
bonds owed to foreign lenders, with the rest owed to domestic banks and
pension funds and international lending institutions like the
International Monetary Fund and the World Bank.
With the central government in default, the 24 provinces are almost
certain to default on their $22 billion in total debts as well.
The de la Rúa government had already cut interest rate payments on
domestically held bonds and had failed to pay any interest on several
bonds in its final days in office.
The next president will be chosen in March by a peculiar system that
combines party primaries and the general election. Voters will choose
one candidate, but the candidate getting the most votes will not
necessarily win. That is because the winner must come from the party
that garners the most votes.
So in theory, if the Justicialist Party wins a majority of votes, its
top vote-getter wins, even if his or her total, in a race split among
several candidates, is far below the single candidate of another party.
The electoral system, formerly used in neighboring Uruguay, was
worked out behind closed doors by Justicialist leaders who wanted to
shorten the electoral season to a single balloting. But opposition
parties cried foul, arguing that the joint session of Congress did not
have the authority to change election law.
"This is an unconstitutional act that will hurt the legitimacy
of the future president," said Congresswoman Elisa Carrió, who has
founded her own leftist party and has declared her presidential
candidacy. "How can a president that potentially will only win 2
million votes govern?" she asked, alluding to the country's
population of 36 million.
Those concerns deadlocked the Congress on Saturday night, and delayed
the ratification of Mr. Rodríguez Saá, who was chosen behind closed
doors on Friday by Justicialist leaders as a neutral caretaker.
"We are choosing a weak president who will be followed by
another weak president," a senior Justicialist leader said.
The election will take place at a time when Argentines are unsure of
what political and economic direction they want to take. The
demonstrations last week produced no new leaders, and there were few
slogans aside from calls to root out corruption and overthrow a
government long considered inept.
Recent polls show a total rejection of the political class, but
little desire to scrap the free-market reforms of the 1990's to return
to the unwieldy government programs of the 1980's that produced
hyperinflation and shrinking economic activity.
In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107,
any copyrighted work in this message is distributed
under fair use without profit or payment for non-profit
research and educational purposes only. [Ref.
http://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/17/107.shtml]